AMMAN — Despite its territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria, the Daesh terror group continues to survive through decentralised networks, sleeper cells, and strategic footholds in rugged desert areas, according to experts.

 

Political analyst Amer Sabaileh and military strategist Nidal Abu Zaid noted that the group’s survival and operational adaptation reflect both strategic gaps and complex geopolitical dynamics, underscoring persistent security challenges for neighbouring countries, including Jordan.

 

Failure to eradicate Daesh fully

 

Sabaileh said the international coalition failed to maintain pressure on Daesh after its territorial defeat, allowing the group to recover. “As a result, the organisation was able to reorganise, recalibrate itself, and quietly expand its networks, extensions, and alliances,” he said.

 

"ISIS [Daesh] leveraged a resurgence of crime and instability to regain influence, though it avoided declaring statehood as before. Today, its presence is confined to select areas and remains largely concealed," he added.

 

Abu Zaid emphasised a deliberate geopolitical element in the group’s survival. He said that Daesh was initially created through security and intelligence channels to serve the strategic interests of certain states. “The organisation was weakened and contained, but not eliminated. Certain pockets were deliberately left in specific areas, especially in the Syrian Badia desert.”

 

Both experts agreed that Daesh has moved away from a centralised hierarchical structure.

 

Sabaileh described the group’s operations as relying on “quick, surprise attacks” carried out by remnants making autonomous decisions.

 

Abu Zaid noted that Daesh now functions as a “horizontal” network of small, loosely coordinated cells, enabling it to adapt and rebuild despite losses, adding that sleeper cells and lone actors exist outside the region and can be mobilised for operations, sometimes exploited by international intelligence agencies.

 

Syria’s entry into the international coalition

 

On Syria’s recent decision to join the international coalition against Daesh, the experts expressed cautious views.

 

Sabaileh labelled the move “theoretical” for now, citing ideological sympathies among ground fighters that continue to complicate direct confrontation with Daesh.

 

Abu Zaid described Syria’s participation as a diplomatic milestone tied to renewed regional security coordination, facilitated by Jordan through the “Syria and Neighbouring Countries Meeting,” convened in Amman in March 2025.

 

Abu Zaid also highlighted the difficulties of reconstructing Syria’s army and security services, noting that integrating diverse factions, including Turkmen, Tajik, Uzbek, Balkan, Syria’s Druze, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) units, poses risks of creating an "army within an army,” potentially fueling sectarian divisions.

 

Implications for Jordan

 

Both analysts underscored the implications for Jordan.

 

Sabaileh warned that instability in Syria along the southern border [with Jordan], including the spread of weapons and the presence of cells capable of using drones and short-range rockets, poses a security risk.

 

Abu Zaid noted that while Daesh is not an imminent threat, it represents a persistent challenge, citing the 2016 Rukban attack in which seven Jordanian soldiers were killed.

 

Daesh may no longer hold territory or operate a formal emirate, but its continued presence in strategically significant deserts, the emergence of sleeper cells, and regional political dynamics ensure that it remains a complex security challenge, experts said, adding that for Jordan and its neighbours, monitoring these networks and maintaining international cooperation, particularly with Syria, remains a priority.