AMMAN — One year after Donald Trump’s return to the White House, a major international opinion poll suggests that his transactional “America First” foreign policy is accelerating a global shift towards China, weakening the United States’ standing among its allies and reshaping perceptions of power—particularly in Europe.

 

The survey, published on Monday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in cooperation with Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World project, indicates that many of Washington’s traditional partners now regard the US as a less reliable ally, while China is increasingly seen as an unavoidable—if not welcome—global power.

 

The findings are based on polling carried out in November 2025 across 21 countries, involving nearly 26,000 respondents. The report, How Trump Is Making China Great Again, and What It Means for Europe, is authored by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, and draws on data from Gallup International and several European polling organisations.

 

Across much of the world, respondents expect China’s global influence to continue growing over the next decade. Large majorities in South Africa, Brazil and Turkey believe Beijing’s power will expand further, while Europeans increasingly expect China to become the world leader in electric vehicle production and renewable energy technologies. In many countries, including South Africa, Brazil and Russia, China is viewed less as a threat than as a partner or ally.

 

By contrast, perceptions of the United States are steadily eroding. While America is still widely seen as globally influential, significant proportions of respondents in Europe, China, Ukraine and the US itself do not expect American power to increase—and around a quarter anticipate a decline. Among Europeans, the shift in attitudes has been particularly stark: only 16 per cent now consider the US an ally, while one in five see it as a rival or enemy.

 

Trump’s “America First” strategy appears to have reduced America’s appeal without fully reassuring its adversaries. Even as China’s influence rises, few believe the US will cease to matter. Instead, the poll points to the emergence of a more fragmented, genuinely multipolar world.

 

Views of President Trump have also cooled in most countries. Compared with a year ago, fewer people believe his re-election was beneficial for their own country, for American citizens or for global peace. In India, support has dropped sharply: while 84 per cent initially welcomed Trump’s victory, only 53 per cent now view it positively. Nevertheless, substantial minorities across several countries continue to believe that Trump has successfully defended US interests on the world stage.

 

The realignment is particularly evident in Europe and its eastern neighbourhood. For the first time, Russians now regard the European Union as a greater adversary than the United States, reflecting the Trump administration’s efforts to improve relations with Moscow alongside rising tensions between Russia and Brussels. Just 37 per cent of Russians now consider the US an adversary, down significantly from previous years.

 

In Ukraine, the shift has been equally dramatic but in the opposite direction. Ukrainians increasingly look to the EU, rather than Washington, as their primary source of support. Nearly two-thirds expect relations with Brussels to strengthen, compared with only a third who say the same of the US. Only 18 per cent of Ukrainians now see the United States as an ally, while 39 per cent identify the EU in that role.

 

China’s perception of Europe has also evolved. A majority of Chinese respondents now believe EU policy towards China differs from that of the US, reversing a trend seen in previous surveys. While most Chinese view the United States as a threat or rival, they tend to see the EU as a partner, suggesting that Europe is increasingly regarded in Beijing as a distinct pole in a post-American global order.

 

Within the United States, attitudes towards Europe remain broadly stable. Most Americans continue to see the EU as an ally, and nearly half agree that European security is inseparable from American security. However, the authors note that Trump’s approach to Europe and Russia does not reflect a settled consensus within US domestic politics.

 

European publics, meanwhile, appear deeply pessimistic. Almost half believe the future holds little promise for their own countries or for the world at large, and many doubt the EU’s ability to act as a power on equal terms with either the US or China. Fears of Russian aggression, a major European war and the use of nuclear weapons are widespread.

 

That anxiety is translating into support for stronger defence policies. A majority of Europeans favour increased defence spending, while significant numbers support the reintroduction of conscription and even the development of a European nuclear deterrent.

 

“The splitting of the West is felt most keenly in Europe,” said Ivan Krastev, one of the report’s authors. “The challenge now is how to live in a truly multipolar world—one many Europeans once hoped for, but now increasingly fear.”

 

Mark Leonard, ECFR’s director, said the findings show that Trump’s policies have undermined America’s standing among allies while boosting China’s position. “Europeans no longer see America as an ally. Ukrainians now look to Brussels rather than Washington for support, and Russians see Europe, not the US, as their principal adversary,” he said.

 

Timothy Garton Ash described the poll as a wake-up call. “Europeans are finally confronting the harsh realities of a post-Western world,” he said. “They recognise that they can no longer rely on the US for their security, on China for their prosperity, or on Russia for their energy—and they are unsure whether they can rely on themselves.”