In economics, not all numbers carry the same weight. A modest figure can convey a powerful message, while an impressive headline number may conceal a far less encouraging reality. That is why economic growth should not be judged solely by how high it is, but by a more important question: How was it achieved, and under what circumstances?

 

From this perspective, Jordan's real GDP growth of 2.9 per cent during the first quarter of 2026 deserves particular attention. It was achieved under one of the most challenging regional environments in recent years.

 

While the region continued to grapple with the repercussions of the war in Gaza, persistent geopolitical tensions, and disruptions to trade, transportation, and tourism, the Jordanian economy maintained its upward trajectory and recorded one of its strongest quarterly performances in recent years.

 

Looking back at first-quarter growth rates since 2010 makes this achievement even more significant. Jordan has recorded a higher first-quarter growth rate only three times in 2012 (3 per cent), 2014 (3.2 per cent), and 2023 (3.2 per cent), and each of those years reflected exceptional circumstances rather than a sustained improvement in the underlying economy.

 

In 2012, the outbreak of the Syrian crisis triggered a massive influx of refugees into Jordan. The rapid increase in population stimulated demand for housing, consumer goods, public services, and infrastructure, while international aid flows expanded significantly. Although this imposed considerable fiscal and social pressures on the Kingdom, it also generated an exceptional boost to domestic economic activity.

 

In 2014, economic growth was supported by an expansionary fiscal policy, accompanied by higher public expenditure and increased government borrowing to finance energy-related challenges and the costs associated with hosting refugees. While this fiscal stimulus helped sustain economic activity, it also contributed to a significant rise in public debt.

 

The story was different in 2023. Growth reflected the post-pandemic recovery, driven by the strong rebound in tourism, the normalisation of international travel, and improving external demand for Jordanian exports. In other words, growth was largely the product of recovery from an extraordinary global shock.

 

The first quarter of 2026, however, tells a fundamentally different story. Growth was neither driven by an exceptional demographic shock nor by extraordinary fiscal expansion nor by recovery from a global health crisis. Instead, it reflects a gradual strengthening of the real economy, led primarily by productive sectors despite an exceptionally volatile regional environment.

 

And that is where the real story begins. The most important aspect of Jordan's recent performance lies not merely in the growth rate itself, but in what drove that growth. Agriculture expanded by 6.8 per cent, manufacturing by 5.3 per cent, and mining and quarrying by 4.7 per cent, while electricity and utilities grew by 4.3 per cent. More importantly, the industrial sector alone accounted for nearly 40 per cent of overall economic growth, underscoring a structural shift in the composition of the economy.

 

This development deserves particular attention. Manufacturing remains the backbone of every productive economy, and achieving such a strong expansion within a relatively short period—despite a highly challenging regional environment—is no ordinary accomplishment. It reflects not only the resilience of Jordanian industry but also the effectiveness of economic policies that have strengthened the country's productive base.

 

In many developing economies, growth is often driven by consumption, government spending, or temporary external factors. Jordan's recent experience points in a different direction. The economy is increasingly generating growth through production, exports, and value creation, a transition that is essential for achieving long-term sustainable development.

 

The export sector provides further evidence of this transformation. Perhaps the most encouraging signal is not simply the increase in GDP, but the improvement in the quality of growth itself. During the first four months of 2026, industrial exports expanded by 9.1 per cent, while the trade deficit narrowed by 6.3 per cent. At the same time, the export-to-import coverage ratio rose to 59 per cent, the highest level recorded during the 2010–2025 period. This represents a meaningful structural improvement. Every 100 Jordanian dinars of imports is now matched by 59 dinars of exports, reflecting stronger domestic production, greater export competitiveness, and a reduced dependence on external financing to sustain imports.

 

Equally significant is the diversity behind this export growth. It was not driven by a single commodity or sector, but by broad-based expansion across mining products, chemicals, fertilizers, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, garments, food processing, and engineering industries.

 

Such diversification enhances the resilience of Jordan's export sector. Economies that rely heavily on one or two export products remain vulnerable to price shocks and fluctuations in global demand. Jordan's increasingly diversified industrial base provides a stronger foundation for sustained economic growth and greater resilience against external volatility.

 

Tourism presents a more nuanced picture. Tourism revenues declined by 3.8 per cent during the first quarter of 2026, reaching US$1.65 billion, compared with US$1.72 billion during the same period of the previous year. The decline primarily reflected lower spending by Jordanian expatriates, Arab visitors, and several other traditional markets. Nevertheless, tourism from European countries increased by 20.1 per cent, while arrivals from Asian and American markets also recorded positive growth.

 

These figures suggest that Jordan's tourism sector remains fundamentally resilient. Given that tourism is among the industries most sensitive to geopolitical developments, its performance is likely to improve significantly once regional conditions stabilize.

 

Another encouraging indicator is the revival of domestic investment. During the first quarter of 2026, the number of building permits issued increased by approximately 20 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier, while the total licensed construction area also expanded. In economics, building permits are widely regarded as a leading indicator of future economic activity because they reflect investment decisions made today based on expectations about tomorrow.

 

This suggests that confidence among investors, businesses, and households has strengthened. Investment decisions are inherently forward-looking; they are made not in response to current conditions alone, but to expectations of future economic performance. The recent increase in construction activity, therefore, signals growing optimism about Jordan's economic prospects.

 

Beyond investment, several macroeconomic indicators continue to reinforce this positive picture. Foreign exchange reserves remain at comfortable levels, inflation has stayed relatively low, remittances from Jordanians working abroad continue to grow, and national exports have maintained their upward momentum. Collectively, these factors have enhanced macroeconomic stability and strengthened Jordan's ability to withstand external shocks.

 

None of this suggests that the country's economic challenges have disappeared. Unemployment remains one of Jordan's most pressing structural issues. Raising productivity, accelerating job creation, and improving household incomes continue to be essential national priorities. Yet these challenges become considerably more manageable when an economy is growing based on production, investment, exports, and competitiveness, rather than relying on temporary fiscal stimulus or exceptional external circumstances.

 

This is precisely why the 2.9 per cent growth figure deserves attention beyond its numerical value. It reflects an economy that is becoming more diversified, more adaptable, and increasingly anchored in productive sectors. It also suggests that years of gradual economic reform are beginning to translate into tangible outcomes. Structural reforms rarely produce immediate results, but when they do, they tend to generate stronger and more sustainable foundations for long-term prosperity.

 

The key challenge now is to preserve this momentum. If manufacturing continues to expand, exports maintain their upward trajectory, private investment gathers further pace, and tourism recovers as regional conditions improve, Jordan will have a genuine opportunity to enter a new phase of economic development—one in which stronger growth becomes the norm rather than the exception.

 

At that point, economic success will no longer be measured solely by quarterly statistics or official reports. It will be reflected in better employment opportunities, higher household incomes, greater business confidence, and an improved quality of life for Jordanian citizens.

 

Ultimately, the most important message behind Jordan's latest growth figures is not that the economy has reached its destination, but that it has demonstrated a growing capacity to move in the right direction—even amid one of the most challenging regional environments in recent history. That resilience may prove to be Jordan's greatest economic asset in the years ahead.

 

The writer is a former Jordanian Minister of State for Economic Affairs.