AMMAN — Surging global energy prices, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, are pushing fertiliser costs to multi-year highs and placing mounting pressure on the Kingdom’s agricultural sector.

 

The World Bank expected energy prices to rise by 24 per cent this year, reaching their highest levels since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Fertiliser prices are projected to increase by 31 per cent, with urea alone expected to jump by around 60 per cent, significantly reducing affordability for farmers worldwide.

 

The bank attributed the spike largely to disruptions in global energy markets following escalating regional tensions and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for oil, gas and fertiliser shipments.

 

Analysts say the economic impact is unfolding in stages, first through energy markets, then food prices, and ultimately inflation.

 

In Jordan, the effects are already evident.

 

Agricultural sector representative Saleh Al Yasin said in a recent interview with The Jordan Times that the cost of key fertilisers has risen sharply, with urea prices ranging between JD450 and JD750 per tonne.

 

“Fertilisers, especially nitrogen-based ones, are now traded much like oil on global markets,” Al Yasin said, citing strong demand and limited supply as key factors driving volatility.

 

Jordan remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials, particularly ammonia sourced from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. Supplies have tightened further due to export disruptions from China, while regional logistical challenges have increased shipping costs and complicated transit routes.

 

Local fertiliser production, primarily carried out by conversion and blending plants, relies on imported inputs such as phosphoric and sulphuric acids. These facilities produce compound soluble fertilisers (NPK), widely used in drip irrigation systems for fruit and vegetable farming. Any disruption in raw material flows directly affects domestic supply and pricing, Al Yasin said.

 

Cost pressures extend beyond fertilisers.

 

Transport expenses for agricultural goods have risen from around JD40 to JD60 per trip, adding to the burden on farmers already grappling with high energy and water costs.

 

Despite these challenges, Jordan maintains relative stability in certain areas of food production.

 

The Kingdom is largely self-sufficient in vegetables such as tomatoes, potatoes, zucchini, melons and watermelons. Citrus fruits account for about 90 per cent of domestic fruit output, although seasonal lemon shortages persist in the spring.

 

Jordan also records a surplus in dairy products and eggs. However, vulnerabilities remain in strategic crops such as wheat, grains and legumes, which are critical for long-term food security and require substantial investment.

 

Globally, the outlook remains uncertain.

 

The World Bank has warned that rising energy and fertiliser costs could fuel inflation and increase borrowing costs, placing additional strain on developing economies.

 

“The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's Chief Economist.

 

In response, sector leaders are calling for targeted government support, including interest-free loans to help traders and manufacturers build strategic reserves of fertilisers and raw materials.

 

At the same time, Al Yasin pointed to an opportunity for Jordan to expand fertiliser exports by leveraging its phosphate and potash resources to access regional and international markets.

 

According to the Agricultural Credit Corporation (ACC), around 1,600 farmers have benefited from its lending programmes, receiving loans totalling JD10 million as part of broader efforts to expand financing to the agricultural sector, since the begining of 2026.

 

The corporation is also expanding the use of water-saving technologies through its “Ardhi” programme, which provides interest-free financing worth JD10 million over five years. So far, 134 farmers have benefited, receiving JD1.6 million in funding in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture and the World Bank.

 

As global supply shocks continue to ripple through energy and commodity markets, Jordan’s fertiliser sector faces a delicate balancing act, managing rising domestic costs while positioning itself for growth abroad.