Israelis head to Knesset elections in a few days, on the 27th of this month, unless Israel faces a broad security or military deterioration in the region that could lead to the elections being postponed and rescheduled until a later date.

 

Amman doesn't appear optimistic about the results of Israel's legislative elections, because what matters to Jordan is tied to literal details, most notably the composition of the Knesset, the identity of whoever will form Israel's next government, and the nature of the program that will be implemented in Israel, amid indications that all of Israel has become extreme right, with no big difference between Netanyahu if he returns as prime minister, or any name from the Israeli opposition forming the government, amid information that the Israeli right has spread throughout Israel's entire security and military establishment, unlike previous periods, a state of unity in extremism.

 

Amman's calculations face two possibilities before the elections. The first is the outbreak of a sudden Israeli war against Iran before the date of the vote, which could lead to a broad, long-lasting regional war that burns the entire region and postpones the Israeli elections, or achieves Israel's goals and works in favor of Likud and Netanyahu in the elections if it's short and decisive in Israel's favor, with Iran emerging damaged militarily.

 

The second possibility is that no war, short or long, breaks out before the election date, and we reach the 27th of this month without wars, and here the Israeli knot repeats itself; whatever the result of the elections in terms of Israeli parties and Arab participation, all indicators say the extremist political and religious right will lead the next phase. And if Netanyahu succeeds in forming the next government, or a unity government dominated by the opposition is formed, the question in Jordan will be tied to the nature of the Israeli project, and whether it's a phased project or the project of an entire occupying state in which nothing will change even if names and titles change.

 

The most dangerous timing for the relationship between Jordan and Israel is tied to what comes after the elections if they take place on schedule, because all indicators say Israel will enter a higher level of escalation with Jordan on the West Bank file and the completion of its occupation, the displacement plan toward Jordan, or an attempt to force and lure Jordan into governing Areas (A) and (B) in the West Bank, and compelling it by every means to entangle itself in the security and administrative management file. In addition, the current trend's control of the Knesset and the Israeli government, perhaps even more than before, will give the Israeli right the opportunity to settle the Al-Aqsa Mosque file and strip away Jordanian custodianship, and fully divide the Noble Sanctuary geographically and temporally.

 

The most prominent factor in the entire Israeli elections file is tied to what Israel generates in the way of dangerous conditions threatening the whole region, exporting wars to all Arab countries; the Levant, Iraq, the Arabian Peninsula states, and Egypt, through various levers, parties, and headings, but the outcome is carrying out a "regional demolition scenario" on all of Jordan's neighbors, which means weakening Jordan, threatening it, and attempting to isolate it and single it out amid a region whose pillars are collapsing daily.

 

Jordan views the elections with tension, because it understands the elections may serve as further strengthening of the current trend in Israel, giving it doubled room to continue the same plans that include Jordan in some of their links, and Jordan understands it faces two phases each worse than the other; the first before the elections, and the second after the elections, but all assessments in Amman say what's coming is harder in every language, reading, and expectation as well.