Oil prices rose Thursday, heading towards strong quarterly gains amid expectations that supply cuts by OPEC+ supply cuts would lead to a shortage in the global market.

 

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According to Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to around USD 82 per barrel after a modest decline over two days, with Brent crude surpassing USD 86.

 

The US crude index has risen by 14 percent this year, as the price differentials between the nearest two oil contracts shifted from a "contango" situation, which is typically bearish, to a "backwardation" state indicating price increases.

 

OPEC+ supply cuts, which amount to two million barrels per day, were extended until the end of June, bolstering expectations of a reduction in global inventories.

 

The recovery in crude oil prices in the first quarter was supported by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and demand growth in Asian economies including India.

 

However, the increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories in this week's data has undermined some of the supply tightness witnessed in the markets, with oil supplies from outside OPEC+ continuing to expand.

 

The upward trend has prompted some banks to warn of potential price increases, depending on the course of current events.

 

With current expectations in mind, J.P. Morgan said this week that the path is clear for Brent crude to reach triple digits by September if the impact of Russian production cuts is not balanced by other measures.