The international, regional and domestic dimensions intersect in the Jordanian context in striking and intricate ways. There is hardly any major international or regional development that does not extend palpably into the domestic arena. In Jordan’s case, political geography plays a significant role in shaping this entanglement, especially in a Middle East defined by tensions, crises, and cross-border conflicts.

 

The internal landscape constitutes another source of this interconnectedness, particularly through the Palestinian question, the issue of political identity, and the ideological underpinnings of the Jordanian state, which rests on both Arab nationalist and Islamic concepts. All of this places Jordan not only at the center of political storms, but also deeply intertwined with them socially, culturally and popularly.

 

This introduction sets the stage for the central question raised in Jordan following the recent troubling incident in the northern city of Ramtha, where two brothers, identified as jihadists linked to Daesh ideology, engaged in an armed confrontation with security forces, leading to their death and the injury of four officers. Given the sensitivity of the location, a crowded popular market, the question arose: Was this incident driven by domestic, regional or even international factors?

 

In reality, the incident reflects the tight and multilayered interweaving of these dimensions. The father of the two men—according to security leaks—was a member of the Irbid cell that clashed with security forces in 2016, resulting in the death of an officer, the injury of others, and the killing of several cell members. The rest, including the father, were later executed. One of the brothers had been involved in that cell’s logistical and electronic operations, was sentenced to 18 years in prison, escaped from a juvenile facility, and was later apprehended.

 

We are therefore dealing with a family story—and not an isolated one. According to a study conducted by the author on the Daesh current in Jordan, the findings point to what was termed a “pattern shift”: from individual to familial recruitment, accompanied by changing social profiles. University students, educated youth, middle-class workers and professionals now constitute the majority of those influenced by Daesh discourse. The study also documented the emergence of phenomena such as jihadist siblings, jihadist sisters, jihadist families, and jihadist minors—all new patterns associated with the rise of Daesh.

 

Yet it would be unrealistic to exclude the external dimension. Daesh itself is a transnational actor, and it has regained activity in the Syrian Badia and other areas. The Gaza war, with its deep resonance among Jordanians, especially the youth, will not pass without generating new waves of reactions, some of which may take the form of retaliatory acts or attempted attacks inspired by anger over Israeli policies and the ongoing genocide.

 

While this particular incident may appear unrelated to Gaza, especially since Daesh-influenced individuals in Jordan typically prioritise different objectives, it is essential to recall that Daesh has long capitalised on crises, despair, loss of hope and the sense of a blocked future experienced by many young Arabs. It has exploited religious symbolism and criticism of the status quo to recruit followers.

 

Moreover, the incident is not the first of its kind since the Gaza war. Several individuals have attempted to cross the border and carry out attacks against Israeli targets, some acting alone, others affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been legally banned in Jordan. What was once, over nearly three decades since the emergence of the Jordanian jihadist-Salafi movement under Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in the mid-1990s, the exclusive domain of this movement has recently become more widespread among segments of society inclined toward retaliatory action against Israel.

 

Adding fuel to an already burning fire is the executive order issued by US President Donald Trump designating branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon as terrorist organisations. This step is expected to produce significant domestic and regional repercussions, heighten tensions and deepen volatility, especially if the peace process remains stagnant, as expected, or if conditions deteriorate in the region or in the West Bank.